In. Climate change is likely to modify the seasonality, distribution, and prevalence of vector-borne diseases in the Southeast.29 Vector-borne diseases pose a greater risk in cities than in rural areas because of higher population densities and other human factors (for example, pools of standing water in man-made structures, such as tires or buckets, are breeding grounds for some species of mosquitoes). Lindsay, S. W., A. Wilson, N. Golding, T. W. Scott, and W. Takken, 2017: Improving the built environment in urban areas to control Aedes aegypti-borne diseases. A. Mendelssohn, and N. Saintilan, 2016: Mangrove sedimentation and response to relative sea-level rise. Case Study: Charleston, South Carolina, Begins Planning and Reinvesting for Sea Level Rise, Case Study: A Lesson Learned for Community Resettlement: Isle de Jean Charles Band of Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Tribe, Case Study: Coastal and Inland Impacts of Extreme Rainfall. Natural resources (see Key Message 3), industry, the local economy, and the population of the region are at increasing risk to these extreme events. Engle, V. D., 2011: Estimating the provision of ecosystem services by Gulf of Mexico coastal wetlands. Boucek, R. E., E. E. Gaiser, H. Liu, and J. S. Rehage, 2016: A review of subtropical community resistance and resilience to extreme cold spells. Already, in response to climate change, plant hardiness zones in certain areas are moving northward and are expected to continue their northward and upslope progression.139,142,146,147 Continued reductions in the frequency and intensity of winter air temperature extremes are expected to change which species are able to survive and thrive in a given location (Figure 19.15). Natural amenities, like attractive scenery and recreational opportunities, draw people to rural areas and have boosted the wealth of many waterfront communities. Neubauer, S. C., 2013: Ecosystem responses of a tidal freshwater marsh experiencing saltwater intrusion and altered hydrology. Hansen, M. C., P. V. Potapov, R. Moore, M. Hancher, S. A. Turubanova, A. Tyukavina, D. Thau, S. V. Stehman, S. J. Goetz, T. R. Loveland, A. Kommareddy, A. Egorov, L. Chini, C. O. Coral elevation and volume in the Florida Keys have been declining in recent decades,245 and present-day temperatures in the region are already close to bleaching thresholds; hence, it is likely that many of the remaining coral reefs in the Southeast region will be lost in the coming decades.246,247 In addition to warming temperatures, accelerated ocean acidification is also expected to contribute to coral reef mortality and decline.248,249 When coral reefs are lost, coastal communities lose the many benefits provided by these valuable ecosystems, including lost tourism opportunities, a decline in fisheries, and a decrease in wave protection.246,247. McKenney, D. W., J. H. Pedlar, K. Lawrence, P. Papadopol, K. Campbell, and M. F. Hutchinson, 2014: Change and evolution in the plant hardiness zones of Canada. Four counties in Southeast Florida formed a climate compact in 2010 to address climate change impacts, including sea level rise and high tide flooding.91 Recently updated in 2017, their climate action plan was one of the first intergovernmental collaborations to address climate change, adaptation, and mitigation in the country. Diem, J. E., C. E. Stauber, and R. Rothenberg, 2017: Heat in the southeastern United States: Characteristics, trends, and potential health impact. Kossin, J. P., T. Hall, T. Knutson, K. E. Kunkel, R. J. Trapp, D. E. Waliser, and M. F. Wehner, 2017: Extreme Storms. Office of the Governor, Atlanta, GA. September 6. Holding, C. V. Kappel, M. I. O'Connor, J. M. Pandolfi, C. Parmesan, F. Schwing, S. A. Thompson, and A. J. Richardson, 2013: Global imprint of climate change on marine life. NWS, What Are Heating and Cooling Degree Days [web page]. Nowacki, G. J., and M. D. Abrams, 2008: The demise of fire and mesophication of forests in the eastern United States. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC, 271 pp. The island has lost 98% of its landmass since 1955 and has only approximately 320 acres (approximately 1/2 square mile) remaining. Forest cover ranges from almost 50% to 80% in these states, creating large areas of interface between populations and forests.262 Jobs in timber, logging, and support for agriculture and forestry totaled approximately 458,000.263 (See Ch. Remote rural communities in the coastal area face fewer employment opportunities and longer distances to urban areas. Allen, C. D., D. D. Breshears, and N. G. McDowell, 2015: On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die-off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene. A., S. Gill, J. Obeysekera, W. Sweet, K. Knuuti, and J. Marburger, 2016: Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide. 6: Forests, KM 1). 6: Forests, KM 3 for additional discussion on forest change impacts on rural landscapes. Day, R. Boumans, and K. Bagstad, 2010: Gaining Ground: Wetlands, Hurricanes and the Economy: The Value of Restoring the Mississippi River Delta. Pierce, D. W., D. R. Cayan, and B. L. Thrasher, 2014: Statistical downscaling using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA). Exposure to high nighttime minimum temperatures reduces the ability of some people to recover from high daytime temperatures, resulting in heat-related illness and death.26 This effect is particularly pronounced in cities, many of which have urban heat islands that already cause elevated nighttime temperatures.27 Cities are taking steps to prevent negative health impacts from heat. Bianchi, T. S., M. A. Allison, J. Zhao, X. Li, R. S. Comeaux, R. A. Feagin, and R. W. Kulawardhana, 2013: Historical reconstruction of mangrove expansion in the Gulf of Mexico: Linking climate change with carbon sequestration in coastal wetlands. Multiple lines of research have shown that global sea levels have increased in the past and are projected to continue to accelerate in the future due to increased global temperature and that higher local sea level rise rates in the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts have occurred.51,52,53,54,55,56,57,59,61,62, Annual occurrences of high tide flooding have increased, causing several Southeast coastal cities to experience all-time records of occurrences that are posing daily risks.1,52,58,60,61,63,67,68, There is scientific consensus that sea level rise will continue to cause increases in high tide flooding in the Southeast as well as impact the frequency and duration of extreme water level events, causing an increase in the vulnerability of coastal populations and property.1,60,63,67,68, In the future, coastal flooding is projected to become more serious, disruptive, and costly as the frequency, depth, and inland extent grow with time.1,2,35,64,65,67,68, Many analyses have determined that extreme rainfall events have increased in the Southeast, and under higher scenarios, the frequency and intensity of these events are projected to increase.19,21,88, Rainfall records have shown that since NCA3, many intense rainfall events (approaching 500-year events) have occurred in the Southeast, with some causing billions of dollars in damage and many deaths.68,82,84, The flood events in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, in 2016 and in South Carolina in 2015 provide real examples of how vulnerable inland and coastal communities are to extreme rainfall events.81,85,86, The socioeconomic impacts of climate change on the Southeast is a developing research field.65,71. Office of Sustainability, Louisville, KY, 24 pp. Gray, R. Hardy, B. Brost, M. Bresette, J. C. Gorham, S. Connett, B. V. S. Crouchley, M. Dawson, D. Hayes, C. E. Diez, R. P. van Dam, S. Willis, M. Nava, K. M. Hart, M. S. Cherkiss, A. G. Crowder, C. Pollock, Z. Hillis-Starr, F. A. Muoz Tenera, R. Herrera-Pavn, V. Labrada-Martagn, A. Lorences, A. Negrete-Philippe, M. M. Lamont, A. M. Foley, R. Bailey, R. R. Carthy, R. Scarpino, E. McMichael, J. Doney, S. C., M. Ruckelshaus, J. E. Duffy, J. P. Barry, F. Chan, C. A. English, H. M. Galindo, J. M. Grebmeier, A. Beard, C. B., R. J. Eisen, C. M. Barker, J. F. Garofalo, M. Hahn, M. Hayden, A. J. Monaghan, N. H. Ogden, and P. J. Schramm, 2016: Ch. ERS, 2018: Rural Poverty & Well-Being: Geography of Poverty. A. Whittington, and R. Paperno, 2016: Resilience of a tropical sport fish population to a severe cold event varies across five estuaries in southern Florida. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 144. NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 9. Desantis, L. R. G., S. Bhotika, K. Williams, and F. E. Putz, 2007: Sea-level rise and drought interactions accelerate forest decline on the Gulf Coast of Florida, USA. Morales, J., 2016: Miami Beach coastal flooding forum. Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC), Atlanta, GA. ARC, 2017: Population & Employment Forecasts. North Carolinas Blue Economy information series provides updates related to the states ocean economy and underlying natural resources. A. Martinich, K. C. Shouse, and C. W. Wobus, 2013: Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: Comparison of two scenarios. Global Change Research Program, . Sugg, M. M., C. E. Konrad, and C. M. Fuhrmann, 2016: Relationships between maximum temperature and heat-related illness across North Carolina, USA. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrologic cycle and increase the frequency and severity of extreme events like drought and heavy rainfall. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Many cities across the Southeast are planning for the impacts sea level rise is likely to have on their infrastructure (see Case Study Charleston, South Carolina, Begins Planning and Reinvesting and Key Message 2). 2012-08-21 23:20:25. Gandhi, K. J. K., and D. A. Herms, 2010: Direct and indirect effects of alien insect herbivores on ecological processes and interactions in forests of eastern North America. Hsiang, S., R. Kopp, A. Jina, J. doi: Sallenger, A. H., K. S. Doran, and P. A. Howd, 2012: Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America. Increases in temperatures, water stress, freeze-free days, drought, and wildfire risks, together with changing conditions for invasive species and the movement of diseases, create a number of potential risks for existing agricultural systems (Ch. Projected labor hours lost vary by global climate model, time frame, and scenario, with a mean of 0.57 and a model range of 0.340.82 billion labor hours lost each year for RCP8.5 by 2090. Ebi, K. L., and J. Nealon, 2016: Dengue in a changing climate. Others are tourism & recreation, shipping, papermaking, commercial fishing and forestry. How a place relates to surrounding areas, though, is also a vital component of its economic success. Florida Department of Health, Tallahassee, FL, various pp. Ecological diversity in the Southeast is high,113,114,115,116,117 and southeastern ecosystems and landscapes provide many benefits to society. AJC Staff, 2017: Gov. Population projections are inherently uncertain over long time periods, and shifts in immigration or migration rates and shifting demographics will influence urban vulnerabilities to climate change. Change the way you dye fibers with a technology that uses no water and less energy than the classic bath-dyeing technology. American Fact Finder. Photo by Jane Harrison. In Jacksonville, Florida, heavy rains were the major issue causing rivers to reach major or record flood stage and flooded some city streets up to 5 feet deep in water. Drew, 2001: Productivity and species richness across an environmental gradient in a fire-dependent ecosystem. Yando, E. S., M. J. Osland, J. M. Willis, R. H. Day, K. W. Krauss, and M. W. Hester, 2016: Salt marsh-mangrove ecotones: Using structural gradients to investigate the effects of woody plant encroachment on plantsoil interactions and ecosystem carbon pools. Neumann, J. E., J. Increased access to high-quality education and workforce development programs can strengthen the labor force. Higher temperatures can result in decreasing productivity of some cultivated crops, including cotton, corn, soybeans, and rice.7 Livestock, which includes hogs and pigs, horses, ponies, mules, burros, and donkeys as well as poultry and processed poultry for consumption (for example, chicken nuggets), is a large component of the agricultural sector for these states and the Nation.258 Livestock are all vulnerable to heat stress, and their care under projected future conditions would require new or enhanced adaptive strategies (Ch. Rising, and Paul Wilson, 2015: Economic Risks of Climate Change: An American Prospectus. While recent regional temperature trends have not shown the same consistent rate of daytime maximum temperature increase as observed in other parts of the United States, climate model simulations strongly suggest that daytime maximum temperatures are likely to increase as humans continue to emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.13 The resulting temperature increases are expected to add to the heat health burden in rural, as well as urban, areas.35 Projected temperature increases also pose challenges for crop production dependent on periods of lower temperatures to reach full productivity. The number of extreme rainfall events is increasing. Williams, K., Z. S. Pinzon, R. P. Stumpf, and E. A. Raabe, 1999: Sea-level rise and coastal forests on the Gulf of Mexico. The U.S. For example, certain insect species, including mosquitoes and tree-damaging beetles, are expected to move northward in response to climate change, which could affect human health and timber supplies.30,144,166,167,168,169,170,171,172 And some bird species, including certain ducks, are not expected to migrate as far south in response to milder winters,173 which could affect birding and hunting recreational opportunities. Barbier, E. B., S. D. Hacker, C. Kennedy, E. W. Koch, A. C. Stier, and B. R. Silliman, 2011: The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services. Diop, E. S., A. Soumare, N. Diallo, and A. Guisse, 1997: Recent changes of the mangroves of the Saloum River Estuary, Senegal. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, 8 pp. Many of the older historical coastal cities in the Southeast were built just above the current Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) level (the average height of the higher of the two daily high tides at a given location), with a gravity-driven drainage system designed to drain rainwater into the tidal estuaries. According to the article, [b]ecause losses are largest in regions that are already poorer on average, climate change tends to increase preexisting inequality in the United States.11 Understanding the demographic and socioeconomic composition of racial and ethnic groups in the region is important, because these characteristics are associated with health risk factors, disease prevalence, and access to care, which in turn may influence the degree of impact from climate-related threats. B. Bolten, M. Chaloupka, V. S. Saba, C. Bellini, M. A. G. Marcovaldi, A. J. The Georgia Piedmont lies between the Blue Ridge Mountains and the Upper Coastal Plain. Heat-related stresses are presently a major concern in the Southeast. NOAA, Georgia Sea Grant, Athens, GA, 82 pp. Lovelock, C. E., I. C. Feller, R. Reef, S. Hickey, and M. C. Ball, 2017: Mangrove dieback during fluctuating sea levels. Grace, 2016: Beyond just sea-level rise: Considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change. Griffith, J. Boon, J. D., 2012: Evidence of sea level acceleration at U.S. and Canadian tide stations, Atlantic Coast, North America. Many transportation and storm water systems have not been designed to withstand these events. Email Fraud Information Population growth is generally associated with economic growth but comes with its own challenges, such as new infrastructure needs and increased demand for public services. For example, a rural municipality can increase tax rates to benefit local schools. Wong, G. K. L., and C. Y. Jim, 2018: Abundance of urban male mosquitoes by green infrastructure types: Implications for landscape design and vector management. By the end of the century, over one-half billion labor hours could be lost from extreme heat-related impacts. Provancha, M. J., P. A. Schmalzer, and C. R. Hall, 1986: Effects of the December 1983 and January 1985 freezing air temperatures on select aquatic poikilotherms and plant species of Merritt Island, Florida. At the coast, a combination of high tide and heavy rain caused significant flooding in downtown Charleston. Ramps emerge in springtime and provide important nutrients after a long winter with a dearth of fresh vegetables. For example, non-metropolitan Harnett County sits between metropolitan Wake County to the north and Cumberland County to the south, making work possible in cities from Raleigh and Fayetteville. In fact, a recent economic study using a higher scenario (RCP8.5)11 suggests that the southern and midwestern populations are likely to suffer the largest losses from projected climate changes in the United States. Berdanier, A. The ecological transformations induced by these extreme events will affect many of the benefits that natural systems provide to society. It is estimated that with a meter (about 3.3 feet) of sea level rise, the Southeast would lose over 13,000 recorded historic and prehistoric archaeological sites and more than 1,000 locations currently eligible for inclusion on the National Register of Historic Places.66 This includes many historic buildings and forts in cities like Charleston, Savannah, and St. Augustine. Flood events in Charleston, South Carolina, have been increasing, and by 2045 the city is projected to face nearly 180 tidal floods (flooding in coastal areas at high tide) per year, as compared to 11 floods per year in 2014.45 These floods affect tourism, transportation, and the economy as a whole. Web Design & Development by Upward Brand Interactions The vibrancy and viability of these metropolitan areas, including the people and critical regional resources located in them, are increasingly at risk due to heat, flooding, and vector-borne disease brought about by a changing climate (likely, high confidence). Climate greatly influences the structure and functioning of all natural systems (Ch. The major urban centers in the Southeast are already impacted by poor air quality during warmer months. | Wahl, T., S. Jain, J. Bender, S. D. Meyers, and M. E. Luther, 2015: Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities. Regional economic integration depends upon robust market relationships and communications between rural and urban areas. Boucek, R. E., and J. S. Rehage, 2014: Climate extremes drive changes in functional community structure. Osland, M. J., L. C. Feher, K. T. Griffith, K. C. Cavanaugh, N. M. Enwright, R. H. Day, C. L. Stagg, K. W. Krauss, R. J. Howard, J. Plant hardiness zone maps help convey the importance of winter air temperature extremes for species and natural systems in the Southeast. Recent analyses of historical water levels at many NOAA tide gauges has shown an increase in the number of times that these warning thresholds were exceeded compared to the past. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC, [various] pp. McEwan, R. W., J. M. Dyer, and N. Pederson, 2011: Multiple interacting ecosystem drivers: Toward an encompassing hypothesis of oak forest dynamics across eastern North America. Lewis, C., 2012: The case of the wild onions: The impact of ramps on Cherokee rights. Jones, W. D., 1979: Effects of the 1978 freeze on native plants of Sonora, Mexico. Mitchell, R. J., Y. Liu, J. J. O'Brien, K. J. Elliott, G. Starr, C. F. Miniat, and J. K. Hiers, 2014: Future climate and fire interactions in the southeastern region of the United States. The scope and scale of adaptation efforts, which are already underway, will affect future vulnerability and risk. In the 1990s, in-migration began to outpace natural population growth the number of births minus the number of deaths.3 In addition to wealth transfer, which can serve as financial capital to invest in new and existing businesses, population growth in these communities is generally associated with new jobs in construction and higher demand for employees in retail and commercial services. Tampa Bay Water, 2014: Tampa Bay Water Hosts Florida Water and Climate Alliance Workshop. Discover these cost-effective liquid colorants that are consistent with all common resin types. More What are the major industries in the coastal plains region of Texas? Global sea level is very likely to rise by 0.30.6 feet by 2030, 0.51.2 feet by 2050, and 1.04.3 feet by 2100 under a range of scenarios from very low (RCP2.6) to high (RCP8.5),51,52,62 which would result in increases in both the depth and frequency of coastal flooding (Figure 19.7).51 Under higher emissions scenarios (RCP8.5), global sea level rise exceeding 8 feet (and even higher in the Southeast) by 2100 cannot be ruled out.51 By 2050, many Southeast cities are projected to experience more than 30 days of high tide flooding regardless of scenario.63 In addition, more extreme coastal flood events are also projected to increase in frequency and duration.60 For example, water levels that currently have a 1% chance of occurring each year (known as a 100-year event) will be more frequent with sea level rise. The Green River District Health Department recently did an assessment of ways to reduce vulnerability to negative health impacts of climate change in a mostly rural region of western Kentucky.290 As a result, the local health department plans to enhance existing epidemiology, public health preparedness, and community health assessment services.290. The rural counties in the region are experiencing higher levels of population loss (13% of rural counties lost population) and low educational attainment (38% of rural counties), with 35% of rural counties experiencing poverty rates of more than 20% persisting over approximately 30 years.10 The Southeast is expected to experience the highest costs associated with meeting increased energy demands; an estimated $3.3 billion each year under a higher scenario (RCP8.5) and $1.2 billion annually under a lower scenario (RCP4.5) by the end of the century.35 Energy poverty is a situation where individuals or households are not able to adequately heat or provide other required energy services in their homes at affordable cost.285 A case study from rural eastern North Carolina further explains energy poverty as a function of the energy efficiency of the home, energy provision infrastructure, physical health, low incomes, and support of social networks, which collectively influence households choices about the amount of heating and cooling they can afford.286 The National Weather Service (NWS) calculates degree days,287 a way of tracking energy use. The freeze-free season lengthens by more than a month, and the frequency of freezing temperatures decreases substantially.20,21. Williams, K., K. C. Ewel, R. P. Stumpf, F. E. Putz, and T. W. Workman, 1999: Sea-level rise and coastal forest retreat on the West Coast of Florida, USA. 10: Ag & Rural, KM 3). The October 2015 event is among a series of devastating precipitation events that have occurred across the Southeast in recent years. Net Accessories (4) 10: Ag & Rural, KM 3). Under the higher scenario, nighttime minimum temperatures above 75F and daytime maximum temperatures above 95F become the summer norm and nights above 80F and days above 100F, now relatively rare occurrences, become commonplace. Rural counties in the region generally have a diversified economy with a relatively low percentage being heavily dependent on one sector. ), competing schools of thought, Inconclusive evidence (limited sources, extrapolations, inconsistent findings, poor documentation and/or methods not tested, etc. Much of the Southeast regions coast is bordered by large expanses of salt marsh and barrier islands. Pye, S., A. Dobbins, C. Baffert, Brajkovi, J. , urica, I. Grgurev, vana, R. De Miglio, occo, and P. Deane, 2015: Energy poverty and vulnerable consumers in the energy sector across the EU: Analysis of policies and measures. This includes impacts on infrastructure41,42,43,291,292,293 and human health.30,31,38,294 Increases in climate-related impacts have already been observed in some Southeast metropolitan areas (e.g., Habeeb et al.

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